Income Shift Approach for the RHNA Methodology

Map Themes

Resulting jurisdiction growth rate (relative to 2019 household level)

< 10
10-13
13-16
16-19
19-22
22-25
> 25

101

Bay Area Jurisdictions

9

Counties

2023-2031

Current RHNA Cycle

Download Data

Download the Total Allocation
by Jurisdiction

ABAG staff has developed this tool to support the Housing Methodology Committee as they develop an initial recommendation for a Regional Housing Needs Allocation methodology.


Regional Housing Needs Determination

RHNA Cycle 2023-2031

Income Category Housing Unit Need Percent
Very-Low 114,442 26%
Low 65,892 15%
Moderate 72,712 16%
Above-Moderate 188,130 43%
Total 441,176 100%

Methodology Baseline Options

Potential Methodology Factors

Click here to learn more about these factors.

Jurisdiction's share of region's total housing growth, based upon 2015 to 2050 housing growth in Plan Bay Area 2050.

Percentage of a jurisdiction’s households living in census tracts labelled High Resource or Highest Resource on the TCAC/HCD Opportunity Map.

The divergence index calculates how a jurisdiction’s racial demographics compare to the region's demographics, with higher scores indicating greater difference between a jurisdiction and the region.

Share of region’s total jobs that can be accessed from a jurisdiction by a 30-minute auto commute.

Share of region’s total jobs that can be accessed from a jurisdiction by a 45-minute transit commute.

Total vehicle miles traveled per worker in a jurisdiction, estimated for 2020 using Plan Bay Area 2040 data.

Ratio of jobs within a jurisdiction to housing units in the jurisdiction.

Ratio of low-wage jobs (less than $3,333/month) within a jurisdiction to the number of low-cost rental units (less than $1,500/month) in the jurisdiction.

Jurisdiction's share of the region's total future jobs, based upon year 2050 forecast from Plan Bay Area 2050

Jurisdiction’s percentage of the region’s total acres within Transit Priority Areas.

Percentage of acres within a jurisdiction’s urbanized area in locations with low risk from natural hazards according to the Modified MTC/ABAG Multi-Hazard Index.

A jurisdiction’s share of the region’s total urbanized land area, using the Census Bureau’s definition ofurbanized land and excluding lands protected from development under federal or state programs.


The income shift produces a RHNA allocation that moves jurisdictions’ income distributions closer to the regional distribution. A shift of 0% means a jurisdiction’s RHNA mirrors the jurisdiction’s existing income distribution, while a shift of 100% means a jurisdiction’s RHNA mirrors the region’s existing income distribution. For shifts over 100%, jurisdictions that have a higher percentage of existing households in a given income category compared to the region receive a share in that category lower than the region’s existing share, and vice versa. In theory, a higher income shift could close the gap between a jurisdiction’s income distribution and the region’s distribution more quickly.